Forecast Business Outcomes with Monte Carlo Analysis

Forecast Business Outcomes with Monte Carlo Analysis

Suppose you are flipping a property.

You buy the worst house in the best street to transform it into the best house and sell at a profit.

How will you work out your profit?

Will you estimate the maximum and minimum for the purchase cost, the improvement cost, and the selling price?

What about all the other costs, and the time the project could take...

... and the time it could take to sell?

How will you process all these variables in your calculation?

You could build a few scenarios to ask "what if" questions, like "what if the bottom drops out of the market mid project?"

But how will you choose them, and how many scenarios will you build?

What if you could plug everything you know into a model and get a computer to build you thousands of scenarios that test every combination of parameters?

What if the computer could tell you the minimum and maximum profit you can achieve?

What if the computer could tell you where 80% of the profit outcomes lie?

What if the computer could tell you how confident you can be in any profit outcome you choose?

Would that take a load of worry off your business planning?

Would that help you plan tighter projects?

Or improve your return on investment across a portfolio of projects?

This is what this course delivers.

And it uses standard functions in Excel so you don't have to buy add-ins, or write macros, or learn special coding.

What is more, we'll give you the Excel to get you started.

We'll use a property flip as our example, and go behind the scenes to explain the mathematics - but you don't have to learn this or pass an exam.

We'll show you how to do this in Excel and give you a working spreadsheet.

And we'll show you how to use the Excel to build your own models.

Then we'll show you how we use this technique to work out our strategy for buying businesses.

How to use beginner-level Excel to improve your forecast of what profit your project or business will deliver.

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What you will learn

• You will be able to forecast the financial outcomes from your business from everything you know about costs and likely sales.
• You will be able to extend the Excel provided to your own businesses without needing any Excel add-ins.

Rating: 4.8

Level: All Levels

Duration: 1 hour

Instructor: Nicholas Whittall